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Probability Seminar List
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The CUNY Probability Seminar is typically held on Tuesdays at 4pm in the CUNY Graduate Math Department. The exact dates, times and locations are mentioned below.

Seminar List for Spring 2008

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Feb 19, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker Robert Adler, Technion
Title INTEGRAL GEOMETRY IN GAUSS SPACE
Abstract The three basic results of classical, Euclidean, Integral Geometry are the the Kinematic Fundamental Formula, Crofton's Formula, and Steiner's (Weyl's) Formula.
After describing these results and their importance, I will describe new versions of them in Gauss space and in Gaussian function space, as well as touching briefly on some of the applications of the new results.
This is joint work with Jonathan Taylor.

Feb 26, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker Peter Carr, NYU
Title Options on Maxima, Drawdown, Trading Gains, and Local Time
Abstract We show how to replicate the payoff from a hypothetical option written on the drawdown and/or maximum of an asset price. In general, the hedge uses static positions in both standard and barrier options. Since barrier options are not yet liquid in many markets, we also impose some structure on the underlying price dynamics under which hedging involves occasional trading in just standard options. This structure further permits options on local time and options on the gains
from binary trading strategies to be semi-statically hedged using standard options.

Mar 4, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker Gerardo Hernandez-del-Valle , Columbia
Title On Schrodinger's equation, 3-dimensional Bessel bridges and passage time problems
Abstract See http://www.math.csi.cuny.edu/probability/Notebook/abstract-Hernandez-del-Valle.pdf

Mar 11, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker Rama Cont, Columbia University
Title Levy copulas
Abstract
We will discuss the notion of "Levy copula" which, just as the notion
of 'copula' characterize the dependence structure of a random vector,
characterizes the dependence among components of multidimensional Lévy
processes (Cont & Tankov 2003, Kallsen & Tankov 2006). We discuss the
dynamic analogue of Sklar's theorem for Levy porcesses and the
relation between the Levy copula and the copula of the law of the Levy
process. We give parametric examples of Levy copulas, and illustrate
how they can be used for constructing multidimensional infinitely
divisible distribution with given marginals.

Mar 18, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker Xia Chen, University of Tennessee
Title LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR LOCAL AND INTERSECTION LOCAL TIMES OF FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN MOTIONS
Abstract It is well known that the local and intersection local times of Gaussian process can be constructed by a method known as local non-determinism. In this talk, I will show how this method can be used to establish the large deviations for the local and intersection local times of fractional Brownian motions. In addition, I will post some related conjectures and remaining problems. Part of of the talk comes is based a collaborative project with Qiman Shao.

Mar 25, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker Omri Sarig, Pennsylvania State University
Title Generalized laws of large numbers for horocycle flows
Abstract
(joint with F. Ledrappier)

Suppose T:X-->X is a map, and m is a T-invariant ergodic
measure. We say that m has a "generalized law of large numbers"is
there is a procedure which

(1) accepts as input the times n such that T^n(x) is in a set E (but
not x or E)
(2) gives as output the measure of E

and so that the procedure works for all E measurable,  for almost all
x in X.

If m(X)=1, then the strong law of large numbers gives us such a
procedure (take the limit of (1/n)[1_E(x)+1_E(Tx)+...+1_E(T^n x)]. But
if m(X) is infinite, this fails.

I will discuss alternative "generalized laws of large numbers" for a
natural class of dynamical systems arising from hyperbolic geometry.
No background in hyperbolic geometry is required.

Apr 8, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker Maria Cristina Mariani, New Mexico State University
Title Extreme events in financial markets
Abstract
This presentation is devoted to the development and analysis of
mathematical models to enhance understanding of extreme events in
financial markets.
This will be undertaken through two specific problems in the
mathematics of risk management:

* The analysis of asset-price dynamics in models that capture the
possibility of sudden, large changes in prices --- i.e., ``jumps";

* The development and application of tools from mathematical physics to
analyze market dynamics leading to a ``crash", and the corresponding
matching with tools from the Mathematical Finance.

Solutions to the equations arising in the corresponding mathematical
models will be analized.

Apr 15, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker William Cuckler , University of Delaware
Title Entropy bounds for perfect matchings and Hamiltonian cycles
Abstract For a graph G=(V,E) and x:E® Â+ satisfying åe ' vxe = 1 for each v Î V, set h(x) = åe xelog(1/xe) (with log = log2). We show that for any n-vertex G, random (not necessarily uniform) perfect matching f satisfying a mild technical condition, and xe=Pr(e Î f),
H(f) < h(x) -\fracn2loge +o(n)
(where H is binary entropy). This implies a similar bound for random Hamiltonian cycles.
Specializing these bounds completes a proof of a quite precise determination of the numbers of perfect matchings and Hamiltonian cycles in Dirac graphs (graphs with minimum degree at least n/2) in terms of h(G): = maxåe xelog(1/xe) (the maximum over x as above). For instance, for the number, Y(G), of Hamiltonian cycles in such a G, we have
Y(G) = exp2[2 h(G) -nloge -o(n)].
Joint with Jeff Kahn.

Apr 29, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker Andrew Heunis, University of Waterloo
Title MINIMUM-VARIANCE HEDGING WITH PORTFOLIO AND TERMINAL WEALTH CONSTRAINTS
Abstract
Minimum-variance hedging in mathematical finance has a long
history, having been initiated by Markowitz in the 1950's for
one-period trading models, then extended to continuous-time
dynamic models by Duffie, Richardson, and Schweizer during
the 1990's, with continuing contributions by Hu, Lim and
Zhou during the past 10 years.
   In this talk we look at the problem of minimum-variance
hedging in a complete standard financial market,
subject to a convex constraint on the portfolio and an
almost-sure "insurance" constraint on the terminal wealth.
We apply the Rockafellar-Moreau approach for problems of
convex minimization. This gives a rational method for
(1) formulating an appropriate vector space of dual variables;
(2) synthesizing a convex-concave bifunction (the Lagrangian)
on the product of the spaces of primal and dual variables;
(3) synthesizing a concave dual functional on the space of
dual variables; (4) establishing existence of a maximizer
for the dual functional (the Lagrange multiplier); and
(5) synthesizing a set of Kuhn-Tucker optimality relations
which are equivalent to the primal and dual problems each
having a solution with equal optimal values.
    In the context of the problem of minimum-variance hedging with
a combination of portfolio and terminal-wealth constraints,
it turns out that the Lagrange multiplier comprises an Ito process
paired with a member of the (topological) dual of the space of
essentially bounded random variables measurable with respect
to the event sigma-algebra at close of trade. A characterization
of this dual space due to Yosida and Hewitt (1952) is used to
make the dual functional more tractable, and it is shown how
a variational analysis on the optimality of the Lagrange
multiplier leads to the construction of a portfolio which
(when paired with the Lagrange multiplier) satisfies the
Kuhn-Tucker relations, and hence is the optimal portfolio.

May 6, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker Carl Mueller, University of Rochester
Title Negative moments for a linear SPDE
Abstract When using Malliavin Calculus to study the smoothness of solutions to stochastic equations, we often differentiate the original equation to obtain a linear equation for the derivative. Next, among other things, we study the moments of the derivative, of both positive and negative orders. Following this motivation, we study the negative moments of solutions to a linear SPDE, and show that the moments are finite in some cases.

May 13, 2008 4:00pm, Room 5417Edit Delete B/W(color)Hard CopyEmail Entry
Speaker Isaac Meilijson, Tel Aviv University (on sabbatical leave at Columbia University)
Title On the expected diameter of an L_2-bounded martingale
Abstract It is shown that the ratio between the expected diameter of an L2-bounded martingale and the standard deviation of its last term cannot exceed sqrt(3). A quantity related to diameter, maximal drawdown (or rise), is introduced and its expectation is shown to be bounded by sqrt(2) times the standard deviation of the last term of the martingale. These results complement the Dubins & Schwarz respective bounds 1 and sqrt(2) for the ratios between the expected maximum and maximal absolute value of the (mean zero) martingale and the standard deviation of its last term. All four bounds are sharp.